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Wilby et al 2014 CR - SDSM-DC theory and applications.pdf (1.49 MB)

The Statistical Downscaling Model - Decision Centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications

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journal contribution
posted on 2015-06-04, 09:25 authored by Robert WilbyRobert Wilby, Christian DawsonChristian Dawson, Conor Murphy, P. O'Connor, E. Hawkins
Regional climate downscaling has arrived at an important juncture. Some in the research community favour continued refinement and evaluation of downscaling techniques within a broader framework of uncertainty characterisation and reduction. Others are calling for smarter use of downscaling tools, accepting that conventional, scenario-led strategies for adaptation planning have limited utility in practice. This paper sets out the rationale and new functionality of the Decision Centric (DC) version of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC). This tool enables synthesis of plausible daily weather series, exotic variables (such as tidal surge), and climate change scenarios guided, not determined, by climate model output. Two worked examples are presented. The first shows how SDSM-DC can be used to reconstruct and in-fill missing records based on calibrated predictor-predictand relationships. Daily temperature and precipitation series from sites in Africa, Asia and North America are deliberately degraded to show that SDSM-DC can reconstitute lost data. The second demonstrates the application of the new scenario generator for stress testing a specific adaptation decision. SDSM-DC is used to generate daily precipitation scenarios to simulate winter flooding in the Boyne catchment, Ireland. This sensitivity analysis reveals the conditions under which existing precautionary allowances for climate change might be insufficient. We conclude by discussing the wider implications of the proposed approach and research opportunities presented by the new tool.

History

School

  • Social Sciences

Department

  • Geography and Environment

Published in

CLIMATE RESEARCH

Volume

61

Issue

3

Pages

259 - 276 (18)

Citation

WILBY, R.L. ... et al, 2014. The Statistical Downscaling Model - Decision Centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications. Climate Research, 61 (3), pp. 259 - 276.

Publisher

© Inter-Research

Version

  • AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Publisher statement

This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Publication date

2014

Notes

This article was published in the journal, Climate Research [© Inter-Research] and the definitive version is available at: http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v61/n3/p259-276/

ISSN

0936-577X

Language

  • en