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An evaluation of ECB policy in the Euro's big four
journal contribution
posted on 2017-02-16, 13:22 authored by Eric Olson, Mark Wohar© 2016 Elsevier Inc. The Taylor curve can be viewed as an efficiency frontier displaying the trade-off between the volatility of output and volatility of inflation. We build on the existing literature in this area and view Taylor curves as a lens through which to gauge the deviations of actual ECB policy from the optimum. We employ data over the period 1999-2013 period to measure the orthogonal distance of the observed volatilities from the Taylor curve in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Euro area using a recursive VARs. We find that the distance has substantially increased in all four countries suggesting that monetary policy has become less efficacious for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain since the financial crisis in 2007-2008. We also estimate counterfactual Taylor rules and find that a simple Taylor rule would have only substantially improved monetary policy efficacy in Germany.
History
School
- Business and Economics
Department
- Business
Published in
Journal of MacroeconomicsVolume
48Pages
203 - 213Citation
OLSON, E. and WOHAR, M.E., 2016. An evaluation of ECB policy in the Euro's big four. Journal of Macroeconomics, 48, pp. 203-213.Publisher
© ElsevierVersion
- VoR (Version of Record)
Publisher statement
This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Acceptance date
2016-03-01Publication date
2016Notes
This paper is in closed access.ISSN
0164-0704Publisher version
Language
- en