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An empirical characterisation of speculative pressure: a comprehensive panel study using LDV models in high frequency

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posted on 2005-08-02, 14:46 authored by Tassos G. Anastasatos, Ian R. Davidson
This article provides a general and robust empirical examination of speculative pressure on various exchange rate regimes using an unusually large panel of monthly data for developed countries, analyzed within the framework of Limited-Dependent Variable (LDV) models with various innovations and extensions. In comparison to studies with lower frequency data, significant differences are found in linking crises with macroeconomic, financial and political fundamentals, despite the noise increasing tendency of higher frequency data. Considerable heterogeneity in the events surrounding crises is documented, rendering globally applicable rules for prediction and prevention inappropriate. The findings are robust to different specifications but the definition of crisis has a bearing on its predictability.

History

School

  • Business and Economics

Department

  • Economics

Pages

713083 bytes

Publication date

2004

Notes

Economics Research Paper, no. 04-19

Language

  • en

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