Changes in the frequency of shopping trips in response to a congestion charge

This paper presents an analysis of shopping trips into London’s central shopping district (Oxford Street area) before and after the introduction of the congestion charging scheme in February 2003. In collaboration with a major department store, three surveys have been conducted in order to understand the changes in shopping frequency and the reasons for so doing. The analysis is based on tabulations of the raw data, binary logit models to analyse which customer groups have reduced their shopping frequency and ordered logit models to analyse which groups have reduced their shopping more than others. The outcome shows that within the sample surveyed the congestion charging scheme has caused a significant number to shop less often in central London and only a few to shop more often in the Oxford Street area. Negative experiences with the congestion charging scheme or a generally bad perception of the scheme are the main reasons for this. Other events, such as the Central Line closure or terrorist threats occurring at the same time also have a temporary influence on the shopping frequency in central London. Evidence from other travel demand measures on city centre shopping activities suggest that the long-term effects of the congestion charge could be more positive.