Frequency_Model_Development_Sep08 v2.pdf (187.14 kB)
The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part I. The development of an improved accident frequency model
journal contribution
posted on 2008-12-08, 17:19 authored by Yuen-Chong (Derek/Derrick) Wong, David Pitfield, Robert E. Caves, A.J. AppleyardThis two-part paper presents the development of an improved airport risk assessment
methodology aimed at assessing risks related to aircraft accidents at and in the vicinity
of airports and managing Airport Safety Areas (ASAs) as a risk mitigation measure.
The improved methodology is more quantitative, risk-sensitive, flexible and
transparent than standard risk assessment approaches. As such, it contributes to the
implementation of Safety Management Systems at airports, as stipulated by the
International Civil Aviation Organisation.
The first part of the paper presents the methodological advances made in the
development of accident frequency models; namely the building of a single
comprehensive database of all relevant accident types, the collection and use of
normal operations data in quantifying the criticality of a series of risk factors, and
modelling accident frequency using multivariate logistic regression. The resulting
models have better goodness-of-fit, sensitivity and specificity than standard risk
assessment methodologies.
History
School
- Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering
Citation
WONG, D.K.Y. ... et al, 2009. The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part I. The development of an improved accident frequency model. Safety Science, 47 (7), pp. 903-912Publisher
© ElsevierVersion
- AM (Accepted Manuscript)
Publication date
2009Notes
This is a journal article. It was published in the journal, Safety Science [© Elsevier] and the definitive version is available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09257535www.elsevier.com/locate/ssciISSN
0925-7535Language
- en