posted on 2010-10-22, 07:44authored byKeith Futcher
This research was initiated a result of a proposition described by Cleland and King in
1983. They proposed that the management of a portfolio-of-projects could be
achieveda s a by-product of using a MIS containing project-management data. The
hypothesis in this research takes their proposition further. It contends that the
application of Pareto-based heuristics in the management of a portfolio-of-projects
can improve on their approach.
The research has been undertaken in Hong Kong. However, a review of the literature
defines Hong Kong as a 'city-state' construction industry that is shown to be similar
to national industries elsewhere. On this basis, the research establishes its validity for
the general-case.
Two qualitative surveys have been completed to identify the current methods used by
Hong Kong contractors and by Hong Kong consultants for the management of their
portfolios-of-projects. These elements of the research did not find evidence that in
general, firms used a MIS that transformed project-level performance data to manage
portfolios-of-projects. In this respect, there was no notable evidence of the adoption
of the project-to-portfolio MIS data-pipeline described by Cleland and King. These
surveys did not provide evidence that the commonly used 'individual review' or
'spreadsheet analysis' of multi-project data for portfolio management included
prioritisation to identify projects of most significance to the outcome of the portfolio.
Empirical data from the public works element of the Hong Kong construction industry
is used in simulations of portfolio management to test the hypothesis along with a
longitudinal grounded case study of the implementation of a portfolio/project MIS
within the Hong Kong Government (HKG SAR). This case study provided practical
experimentation through the quantitative measurement of 'before' and 'after' effects
of a change to project-based multi-project management techniques that fitted the
Cleland and King model. A qualitative survey has been completed to assess the
degree of success and User satisfaction with this practical experimentation. The results of these elements of the research are taken to mean that the hypothesis is
supported in principle.
The final element of the research uses the empirical data to investigate the
effectiveness of basing success for the portfolio-of-projects largely on the outcome of
the important projects within the portfolio. Monte Carlo techniques are used to
simulate an achievable excellent performance for the projects deemed as significant
within the portfolio whilst the outcome for the other projects is unchanged. The
simulated improved performance for the significant projects is based upon a derived
probability-distribution-function (PDF) that represents the top twenty percent of
project achievement for the portfolio-of-projects. The simulated outcome provides
evidence in support of the hypothesis. With the exception of one of the ten cases
tested, the theoretical application of excellent outcomes for the significant twenty
percent of the number of projects using Monte Carlo techniques results in a
worthwhile improved outcome for the portfolio as a whole. In the exceptional case,
the actual result was already in agreement with the theoretical proposition. All ten
cases, thereby showed the hypothesis to be true within the specifics and constraints of
this research.