Thesis-1999-Moss.pdf (29.76 MB)
Rotating machinery reliability
thesis
posted on 2010-11-16, 09:08 authored by T.R. MossRotating machinery is a major contributor to process plant downtime, hence, predicting the
reliability performance of these complex systems becomes an important task in plant availability
assessments. Currently the models employed are relatively elementary so the objective of this
research has been to investigate alternatives which offer improvements particularly for assessing the effect of High-Impact, Low-probability (HILP) events.
Data are necessary in puts to availability models so a significant part of the researchh as focused
on the analysis of reliability and maintainability data. Generic and in-house sources or rotating
machinery failure and repair data have been used. Gas turbines with power outputs less than
30MW, which are employed as drivers for a variety of process applications, provide the main
source of the data analysed. In this area the popular assumption of increasing rates of failure
with equipment age is not supported. Indications of increasing failure rates (IFR), where they
do exist, are quite weak and it is evident that gas turbine systems generally show slowly
decreasing failure rates (DFR) with time in service. Constant failure rates for gas turbine
systems is therefore a reasonable assumption for availability studies. The majority of the data
analysed however have limitations for predicting the likely failure rate for a specific type of gas
turbine in a well-specified application. The problems of maintainability data are less acute
although it is evident that the assumption of a single constant repair rate for complex equipment
such as a gas turbine is over simplistic. Repair time distributions are strongly skewed,
however, when repair times are partitioned into 3 or more ranges the assumption of constant
repair rates appears viable.
The alternative model proposed is based on the assumption of 3 exponentially-distributed
failure/repair modes. This model predicted significantly lower availabilities than single
failure/repair mode models which underestimates the importance of the High-Impact-Low-
Probability outages. However, the model was found to present problems for the application in
Markovian and simulation analyses for more complex configurations (for example, 2-out-of-3
systems) because, inter-alia, of the complexity of'construdting representative State Transition
Diagrams. The alternative of employing fault trees proved significantly more tractable. It was
shown to give the same numerical output as obtained by Markov analysis and has many other
advantages. These include its hierarchical constructipp which facilitates the representation of
complex system logic, the scope for decomposing a complex system into sub-trees by the use
of transfer-in, transfer-out gates, the ability to introduce delays, sequential events and the
selective use of simulation in important sub-trees.
History
School
- Mechanical, Electrical and Manufacturing Engineering
Publisher
© T.R. MossPublication date
1999Notes
A Doctoral Thesis. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy of Loughborough University.EThOS Persistent ID
uk.bl.ethos.311046Language
- en