A model has been developed to assess the hazard presented by a condensed phase explosion
in a built-up area. The principal application of this model is as an aid to quantitative risk
assessment (QRA) of operations involving the transport of high explosive substances' and
articles by road or by rail.
The methodology employed is to utilise a consequence model in conjunction with a scenario
model. The consequence model is used to establish as a function of distance the intensities of
the various explosion phenomena and then to estimate, again as a function of distance, the
injuries that are likely to result. This yields probabilities that persons will become casualties
of the accident, given that people are exposed to the hazard. This effectively determines the
level of individual risk as a function of distance. The scenario model is employed to define
the location of the population in terms of its vulnerability (exposure) at the time of the
explosion. This enables the total number of casualties to be estimated and is effectively a
measure of societal risk.
Elements of the consequence model include submodels for housing damage and. indoor
injury; window breakage and injury from flying glass; air blast and injury by lung damage,
eardrum rupture and impact as a result of bodily displacement; fireball and bum injury;
generation, flight and wounding power of primary fragments; other explosion ejecta; and
falling building debris (glass and masonry).
The overall model has been implemented as a computer program, 'EXMOD'. The primary
fragmentation submodel has been used as the basis of another, 'EXFRAG'. Many of the
results presented in this thesis have been obtained with the aid of these computer programs.
A Doctoral Thesis. Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy of Loughborough University.