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Title: Forecasting low cost housing demand in urban area in Malaysia using a modified back-propagation algorithm
Authors: Nawi, Nazri M.
Hamid, Norhamreeza A.
Zainun, Noor Y.B.
Rahman, Ismail A.
Eftekhari, Mahroo
Keywords: Back propagation
Gradient based search
Adaptive gain
Effectiveness
Computational efficiency
Issue Date: 2012
Publisher: © Academic World Education & Research Center
Citation: NAWI, N.M. ... et al., 2012. Forecasting low cost housing demand in urban area in Malaysia using a modified back-propagation algorithm. AWERProcedia Information Technology & Computer Science, 1 (2012), 2nd World Conference on Information Technology (WCIT-2011), pp. 913 - 921.
Abstract: Over the past decade, the growth of the housing construction in Malaysia has been increase dramatically. The level of urbanization process in the various states in Peninsular Malaysia is considered to be important in planning for low-cost housing needs. Recent studies have found the potential applications of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) particularly back propagation neural network (BPNN) as a successful forecasting tool to forecast low-cost housing demand. However, the training process of BPNN can result in slow convergence or even network paralysis, where the training process comes to a standstill or get stuck at local minima. This paper presents a new approach to improve the training efficiency of BPNN algorithms to forecast low-cost housing demand in one of the states in Peninsular Malaysia. The proposed algorithm (BPM/AG) adaptively modifies the gradient based search direction by introducing the value of gain parameter in the activation function. The results show that the proposed algorithm significantly improves the learning process with more than 31% faster in term of CPU time and number of epochs as compared to the traditional approach. The proposed algorithm can forecast low-cost housing demand very well with 6.62% of MAPE value.
Description: This article was published in the journal AWERProcedia Information Technology and Computer Science (2nd World Conference on Information Technology (WCIT-2011)) [© Academic World Education & Research Center] and the definitive version is available at: http://www.world-education-center.org/index.php/P-ITCS/article/viewFile/753/387
Version: Published
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/11437
Publisher Link: http://www.world-education-center.org/index.php/P-ITCS/article/viewFile/753/387
ISSN: 2147-5105
Appears in Collections:Closed Access (Civil and Building Engineering)

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