SINGH, K. and LI, B., 2012. Discrete Choice Modelling for Traffic Densities
with Lane-Change Behaviour. 8th International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Studies, Changsha, China, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 43, pp.367-374.
This paper investigates the modelling for traffic densities with lane-change behaviour using the information provided
by loop detectors. The existing studies on traffic density estimation for multi-lane roadways mainly focus on the
scenario where either vehicles’ lane-change manoeuvres are not common or the lane-change pattern is time-invariant.
This research, however, takes into consideration the time-varying nature of drivers’ lane-change manoeuvres, and
models the lane-change probabilities using a number of discrete choice models. These lane-change models are then
embedded into a state space model to capture the dynamics of traffic flow. The extended Kalman filter is used to
update the estimated traffic densities of multi-lane motorways. A numerical study is carried out to investigate the
performance of the developed approach.