Developments in the risk of crash involvement and injury to car occupants by model year using vehicle specific exposure data

Crash test based consumer information systems, such as EuroNCAP or US NCAP, have indicated a substantial reduction in the risk of serious injury to car occupants since the mid-1990s. In parallel with these improving experimental results, there has been a steady reduction in the total numbers of car occupants seriously or fatally injured and it has been generally assumed that improved crash protection accounts for much of the reductions observed societally. Nevertheless, there has been very little analysis of the relationship between experimental results and any real reductions in casualties because of the influence of confounding effects of other parameters including the exposure to risk of different categories of vehicle and the underlying trends in mobility. This paper uses UK national accident data and recently available exposure data to evaluate the developments of risk of fatal or serious injury in parallel with the risks of crash involvement.