Loughborough University
Leicestershire, UK
LE11 3TU
+44 (0)1509 263171
Loughborough University

Loughborough University Institutional Repository

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/13007

Title: Two decades of anarchy? Emerging themes and outstanding challenges for neural network modelling of surface hydrology
Authors: Abrahart, Robert J.
Anctil, François
Coulibaly, Paulin
Dawson, Christian W.
Mount, Nick J.
See, Linda M.
Shamseldin, Asaad Y.
Solomatine, Dimitri P.
Toth, Elena
Wilby, Robert L.
Keywords: Forecasting
Issue Date: 2012
Publisher: © Sage
Citation: ABRAHART, R.J. ... et al, 2012. Two decades of anarchy? Emerging themes and outstanding challenges for neural network modelling of surface hydrology. Progress in Physical Geography, 36 (4), pp.480-513.
Abstract: This paper traces two decades of neural network rainfall-runoff and streamflow modelling, collectively termed ‘river forecasting’. The field is now firmly established and the research community involved has much to offer hydrological science. First, however, it will be necessary to converge on more objective and consistent protocols for: selecting and treating inputs prior to model development; extracting physically meaningful insights from each proposed solution; and improving transparency in the benchmarking and reporting of experimental case studies. It is also clear that neural network river forecasting solutions will have limited appeal for operational purposes until confidence intervals can be attached to forecasts. Modular design, ensemble experiments, and hybridization with conventional hydrological models are yielding new tools for decision-making. The full potential for modelling complex hydrological systems, and for characterizing uncertainty, has yet to be realized. Further gains could also emerge from the provision of an agreed set of benchmark data sets and associated development of superior diagnostics for more rigorous intermodel evaluation. To achieve these goals will require a paradigm shift, such that the mass of individual isolated activities, focused on incremental technical refinement, is replaced by a more coordinated, problem-solving international research body.
Description: This article is closed access.
Version: Closed access
DOI: 10.1177/0309133312444943
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/13007
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133312444943
Appears in Collections:Closed Access (Geography)
Closed Access (Computer Science)

Files associated with this item:

File Description SizeFormat
Progress in Physical Geography-2012-Abrahart-480-513.pdfAccepted version522.65 kBAdobe PDFView/Open


SFX Query

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.