A systems thinking approach for modelling supply chain risk propagation

Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) is rapidly becoming a most sought after research area due to the influence of recent supply chain disruptions on global economy. The thesis begins with a systematic literature review of the developments within the broad domain of SCRM over the past decade. Thematic and descriptive analysis supported with modern knowledge management techniques brings forward seven distinctive research gaps for future research in SCRM. Overlapping research findings from an industry perspective, coupled with SCRM research gaps from the systematic literature review has helped to define the research problem for this study. The thesis focuses on a holistic and systematic approach to modelling risks within supply chain and logistics networks. The systems thinking approach followed conceptualises the phenomenon of risk propagation utilising several recent case studies, workshop findings and focus studies. Risk propagation is multidimensional and propagates beyond goods, finance and information resource. It cascades into technology, human resource and socio-ecological dimensions. Three risk propagation zones are identified that build the fundamentals for modelling risk behaviour in terms of cost and delay. The development of a structured framework for SCRM, a holistic supply chain risk model and a quantitative research design for risk assessment are the major contributions of this research. The developed risk assessment platform has the ability to capture the fracture points and cascading impact within a supply chain and logistics network. A reputed aerospace and defence organisation in UK was used to test the experimental modelling set up for its viability and for bridging the gap between theory and practice. The combined statistical and simulation modelling approach provides a new perspective to assessing the complex behavioural performance of risks during multiple interactions within network.