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Title: How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation
Authors: House, Thomas
Ross, Joshua V.
Sirl, David
Keywords: Epidemiology
Infectious disease
Markov chain
Susceptible-infectious-recovered(s)
Issue Date: 2013
Publisher: © The Authors. Published by the Royal Society
Citation: HOUSE, T., ROSS, J.V. and SIRL, D., 2013. How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation. Proceedings of The Royal Society A, 469 (2150), 20120436, 22pp.
Abstract: Epidemic models have become a routinely used tool to inform policy on infectious disease. A particular interest at the moment is the use of computationally intensive inference to parametrize these models. In this context, numerical efficiency is critically important. We consider methods for evaluating the probability mass function of the total number of infections over the course of a stochastic epidemic, with a focus on homogeneous finite populations, but also considering heterogeneous and large populations. Relevant methods are reviewed critically, with existing and novel extensions also presented. We provide code in MATLAB and a systematic comparison of numerical efficiency.
Description: © 2012 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/3.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Sponsor: T.H. is supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council. J.V.R. was supported under Australian Research Council’s Discovery Projects funding scheme (project no. DP110102893).
Version: Published
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2012.0436
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/14271
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2012.0436
ISSN: 1364-5021
Appears in Collections:Published Articles (Maths)

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