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|Title: ||Multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty in building performance assessment|
|Authors: ||Hopfe, Christina J.|
Augenbroe, Godfried L.M.
Hensen, Jan L.M.
|Keywords: ||Building performance simulation|
Multi-criteria decision making
|Issue Date: ||2013|
|Publisher: ||© Elsevier|
|Citation: ||HOPFE, C.J., AUGENBROE, G.L.M. and HENSEN, J.L.M., 2013. Multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty in building performance assessment. Building and Environment, 69, pp.81-90.|
|Abstract: ||Building performance assessment is complex, as it has to respond to multiple criteria.
Objectives originating from the demands that are put on energy consumption, acoustical
performance, thermal occupant comfort, indoor air quality and many other issues must all be
reconciled. An assessment requires the use of predictive models that involve numerous design
and physical parameters as their inputs. Since these input parameters, as well as the models
that operate on them, are not precisely known, it is imprudent to assume deterministic values for
them. A more realistic approach is to introduce ranges of uncertainty in the parameters
themselves, or in their derivation, from underlying approximations. In so doing, it is recognized
that the outcome of a performance assessment is influenced by many sources of uncertainty.
As a consequence of this approach the design process is informed by assessment outcomes
that produce probability distributions of a target measure instead of its deterministic value. In
practice this may lead to a “well informed” analysis but not necessarily to a straightforward, cost
effective and efficient design process.
This paper discusses how design decision making can be based on uncertainty assessments. A
case study is described focusing on a discrete decision that involves a choice between two
HVAC system designs. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) including uncertainty information is
used to arrive at a rational decision. In this approach, key performance indicators such as
energy efficiency, thermal comfort and others are ranked according to their importance and
preferences. This process enables a clear group consensus based choice of one of the two
options. The research presents a viable means of collaboratively ranking complex design
options based on stakeholder’s preferences and considering the uncertainty involved in the designs. In so doing it provides important feedback to the design team.|
|Description: ||This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Building and Environment. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2013.07.019|
|Version: ||Accepted for publication|
|Publisher Link: ||http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2013.07.019|
|Appears in Collections:||Published Articles (Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering)|
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