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Title: The development of a tool to predict team performance
Authors: Sinclair, Murray A.
Siemieniuch, Carys E.
Haslam, Roger
Henshaw, Michael
Evans, L.
Keywords: Methodology
Performance prediction
Small groups
Issue Date: 2012
Publisher: © Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society
Citation: SINCLAIR, M.A. ... et al., 2012. The development of a tool to predict team performance. Applied Ergonomics, 43, pp. 176-183.
Abstract: The paper describes the development of a tool to predict quantitatively the success of a team when executing a process. The tool was developed for the UK defence industry, though it may be useful in other domains. It is expected to be used by systems engineers in initial stages of systems design, when concepts are still fluid, including the structure of the team(s) which are expected to be operators within the system. It enables answers to be calculated for questions such as “What happens if I reduce team size?” and “Can I reduce the qualifications necessary to execute this process and still achieve the required level of success?”. The tool has undergone verification and validation; it predicts fairly well and shows promise. An unexpected finding is that the tool creates a good a priori argument for significant attention to Human Factors Integration in systems projects. The simulations show that if a systems project takes full account of human factors integration (selection, training, process design, interaction design, culture, etc.) then the likelihood of team success will be in excess of 0.95. As the project derogates from this state, the likelihood of team success will drop as low as 0.05. If the team has good internal communications and good individuals in key roles, the likelihood of success rises towards 0.25. Even with a team comprising the best individuals, p(success) will not be greater than 0.35. It is hoped that these results will be useful for human factors professionals involved in systems design.
Description: Closed access. This article was published in the journal, Applied Ergonomics [© Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society] and the definitive version is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apergo.2011.05.004
Sponsor: This work was funded jointly by UK Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council and by BAE Systems.
Version: Published
DOI: 10.1016/j.apergo.2011.05.004
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/14834
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apergo.2011.05.004
ISSN: 0003-6870
Appears in Collections:Closed Access (Mechanical, Electrical and Manufacturing Engineering)
Closed Access (Design School)

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