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Title: The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates
Authors: Balke, Nathan S.
Ma, Jun
Wohar, Mark E.
Keywords: Bayesian analysis
Exchange rate decomposition
Monetary model
State-space model
Issue Date: 2013
Publisher: © Elsevier B.V.
Citation: BALKE, N.S., MA, J,. and WOHAR, M.E., 2013. The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates. Journal of International Economics, 90, pp. 1 - 16
Abstract: Starting from the asset pricing approach of Engel and West, we examine the degree to which fundamentals can explain exchange rate fluctuations. We show that it is not possible to obtain sharp inferences about the relative contribution of fundamentals using only data on observed monetary fundamentals—money minus output differentials across countries—and exchange rates. We use additional data on interest rate and price differentials along with the implications of the monetary model of exchange rates to decompose exchange rate fluctuations. In general, we find that money demand shifts, along with observed monetary fundamentals, are an important contributor to exchange rate fluctuations.
Description: Closed access.
Version: Published
DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.10.003
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/15152
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.10.003
ISSN: 0022-1996
Appears in Collections:Closed Access (Business School)

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