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Title: The influence of hospital ward design on resilience to heat waves: an exploration using distributed lag models
Authors: Iddon, C.R.
Mills, Terence C.
Giridharan, Renganathan
Lomas, Kevin J.
Keywords: Heatwave
Overheating risk
Distributed lag models
Thermal modelling
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: © The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V
Citation: IDDON, C.R. ... et al., 2015. The influence of hospital ward design on resilience to heat waves: an exploration using distributed lag models. Energy and Buildings, 86, pp. 573-588.
Abstract: Distributed lag models (DLMs) to predict future internal temperatures have been developed using the hourly weather data and the internal temperatures recorded in eleven spaces on two UK National Health Service (NHS) hospital sites. The ward spaces were in five buildings of very different type and age. In all the DLMs, the best prediction of internal temperature was obtained using three exogenous drivers, previous internal temperature, external temperature and solar radiation. DLMs were sensitive to the buildings' differences in orientation, thermal mass and shading and were validated by comparing the predictions with the internal temperatures recorded in the summer of 2012. The results were encouraging, with both modelled and recorded data showing good correlation. To understand the resilience of the spaces to heat waves, the DLMs were fed with weather data recorded during the hot summer of 2006. The Nightingale wards and traditional masonry wards showed remarkable resilience to the hot weather. In contrast, light-weight modular buildings were predicted to overheat dangerously. By recording internal temperatures for a short period, DLMs might be created that can forecast future temperatures in many other types of naturally ventilated or mixed-mode buildings as a means of assessing overheating risk.
Description: This is an Open Access Article (CC-BY 3.0). It is published by Elsevier as Open Access at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.09.053
Sponsor: The data used in this paper was collected as part of the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) project, DeDeRHECC: ‘Design and Delivery of Robust Hospital Environments in a Changing Climate’ (EP/G061327/1), which was funded through the Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Climate programme. The project was collaboration between Cambridge, Loughborough and Leeds Universities and the Open University. The data collection was made possible by the kind cooperation of the Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and the West Hertfordshire NHS Trust.
Version: Published
DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.09.053
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/16610
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.09.053
ISSN: 0378-7788
Appears in Collections:Published Articles (Civil and Building Engineering)

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