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Title: A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London
Authors: Irvine, Daniel
Budd, Lucy C.S.
Pitfield, D.E.
Keywords: Airport capacity
Monte Carlo simulation
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: © Elsevier Ltd.
Citation: IRVINE, D., BUDD, L.C.S. and PITFIELD, D.E., 2015. A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London. Journal of Air Transport Management, 42, pp. 1 - 9.
Abstract: The issue of future airport capacity in London is currently the subject of much political debate in the UK. Although realistic estimates of the effects of capacity enhancement may be desirable, such estimates are difficult. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation, this paper quantifies and compares the relative capacity enhancements that may be afforded by the construction of a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary, additional runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and changes to operating practices at Heathrow. The simulations show that a new hub airport would be the most effective way to increase capacity, although the reported financial and environmental costs of such a development indicate a comparatively poor rate of return. Proposed new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and the removal of runway alternation at Heathrow provide more modest increases in capacity.
Description: This is a pre-print of an article that has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Air Transport Management [© Elsevier]. The definitive version is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.06.005
Version: Submitted for publication
DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.06.005
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/17601
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.06.005
ISSN: 0969-6997
Appears in Collections:Published Articles (Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering)

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