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|Title: ||Multi-domain analysis of photovoltaic impacts via integrated spatial and probabilistic modelling|
|Authors: ||Rowley, Paul|
Leicester, Philip A.
Betts, Thomas R.
|Issue Date: ||2015|
|Publisher: ||Institution of Engineering and Technology|
|Citation: ||ROWLEY, P. ... et al, 2015. Multi-domain analysis of photovoltaic impacts via integrated spatial and probabilistic modelling. IET Renewable Power Generation, 9(5), pp.424-431.|
|Abstract: ||Currently, the impacts of wide-scale implementation of photovoltaic (PV) technology are evaluated
in terms of such indicators as rated capacity, energy output or return on investment. However, as PV markets mature,
consideration of additional impacts (such as electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure or socio-economic
factors) is required to evaluate potential costs and benefits of wide-scale PV in relation to specific policy objectives.
This study describes a hybrid GIS spatio-temporal modelling approach integrating probabilistic analysis via a Bayesian
technique to evaluate multi-scale/multi-domain impacts of PV. First, a wide-area solar resource modelling approach
utilising GIS-based dynamic interpolation is presented and the implications for improved impact analysis on electrical
networks are discussed. Subsequently, a GIS-based analysis of PV deployment in an area of constrained electricity
network capacity is presented, along with an impact analysis of specific policy implementation upon the spatial
distribution of increasing PV penetration. Finally, a Bayesian probabilistic graphical model for assessment of socioeconomic
impacts of domestic PV at high penetrations is demonstrated. Taken together, the results show that
integrated spatio-temporal probabilistic assessment supports multi-domain analysis of the impacts of PV, thereby
providing decision makers with a tool to facilitate deliberative and systematic evidence-based policy making
incorporating diverse stakeholder perspectives.|
|Description: ||This is an Open Access Article published by IET and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed.|
|Sponsor: ||This work has been conducted as part of the research project
‘PV2025 – Potential Costs and Benefits of Photovoltaic for UK
Infrastructure and Society’ project which is funded by the RCUK’s
Energy Programme [grant no: EP/K02227X/1].|
|Publisher Link: ||http://dx.doi.org/10.1049/iet-rpg.2014.0374|
|Appears in Collections:||Published Articles (Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering)|
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