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Modelling the anthropogenic impacts on fluvial flood risks in a coastal mega-city: a scenario-based case study in Shanghai, China
journal contribution
posted on 2015-07-23, 14:13 authored by Jie Yin, Dapeng YuDapeng Yu, Zhane Yin, Jun Wang, Shiyuan XuThis paper describes a novel approach to the evaluation of anthropogenic impacts on flood risks in coastal
mega-cities by incorporating three anthropogenic variables (land subsidence, urbanization and flood
defence) within a scenario-based framework where numerical modelling was undertaken to quantify the
risks. The evolving risks at four time points (1979, 1990, 2000 and 2009) were assessed for the Huangpu
River floodplain where the city of Shanghai is located. A 2D hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-Inertial)
was used to estimate the flood risks associated with each scenario. Flood events with various return
periods (10-, 100- and 1000-year) were designed based on a one in 50 year flood event that occurred in
Shanghai on August 1997.
Results demonstrate the individual as well as the combined impacts of the three anthropogenic factors
on the changing fluvial flood risks in the Huangpu River basin over the last three decades during the
city’s transitional economy (1979–2009). Land subsidence and urbanization were found to lead to proportionate
but non-linear impact on flood risks due to their complex spatial and temporal interaction. The
impacts and their sensitivity are the function of the rate and spatial distribution of each evolving factor.
While the pattern of response to individual anthropogenic variables is largely expected, the combined
impacts demonstrate greater spatial and temporal variation. Flood defences offer considerable benefits
in reducing the total inundated areas in the Huangpu River basin over the periods considered, for all
magnitude floods. This, to a large extent, alleviates the adverse impacts arising from land subsidence and
urbanization.
Funding
This paper was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant nos: 41201550, 41371493, 71373084), the Humanities and Social Science Project of Education Ministry (Grant no: 12YJCZH257), Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant nos: 13YZ061, 13ZZ035), the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (Grant no: SKLEC-KF201407), Key Project of Young Talent Foundation from Zhejiang Gongshang University (Grant no: QZ13-2).
History
School
- Social Sciences
Department
- Geography and Environment
Published in
LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNINGVolume
136Pages
144 - 155 (12)Citation
YIN, J. et al., 2015. Modelling the anthropogenic impacts on fluvial flood risks in a coastal mega-city: a scenario-based case study in Shanghai, China. Landscape and Urban Planning, 136, pp. 144 - 155.Publisher
© Elsevier B.V.Version
- VoR (Version of Record)
Publisher statement
This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Publication date
2015Notes
Closed accessISSN
0169-2046Publisher version
Language
- en