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Title: Modelling the anthropogenic impacts on fluvial flood risks in a coastal mega-city: a scenario-based case study in Shanghai, China
Authors: Yin, Jie
Yu, Dapeng
Yin, Zhane
Wang, Jun
Xu, Shiyuan
Keywords: Anthropogenic impact
Land subsidence
Fluvial flood modelling
Huangpu River
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: © Elsevier B.V.
Citation: YIN, J. et al., 2015. Modelling the anthropogenic impacts on fluvial flood risks in a coastal mega-city: a scenario-based case study in Shanghai, China. Landscape and Urban Planning, 136, pp. 144 - 155.
Abstract: This paper describes a novel approach to the evaluation of anthropogenic impacts on flood risks in coastal mega-cities by incorporating three anthropogenic variables (land subsidence, urbanization and flood defence) within a scenario-based framework where numerical modelling was undertaken to quantify the risks. The evolving risks at four time points (1979, 1990, 2000 and 2009) were assessed for the Huangpu River floodplain where the city of Shanghai is located. A 2D hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-Inertial) was used to estimate the flood risks associated with each scenario. Flood events with various return periods (10-, 100- and 1000-year) were designed based on a one in 50 year flood event that occurred in Shanghai on August 1997. Results demonstrate the individual as well as the combined impacts of the three anthropogenic factors on the changing fluvial flood risks in the Huangpu River basin over the last three decades during the city’s transitional economy (1979–2009). Land subsidence and urbanization were found to lead to proportionate but non-linear impact on flood risks due to their complex spatial and temporal interaction. The impacts and their sensitivity are the function of the rate and spatial distribution of each evolving factor. While the pattern of response to individual anthropogenic variables is largely expected, the combined impacts demonstrate greater spatial and temporal variation. Flood defences offer considerable benefits in reducing the total inundated areas in the Huangpu River basin over the periods considered, for all magnitude floods. This, to a large extent, alleviates the adverse impacts arising from land subsidence and urbanization.
Description: Closed access
Sponsor: This paper was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant nos: 41201550, 41371493, 71373084), the Humanities and Social Science Project of Education Ministry (Grant no: 12YJCZH257), Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant nos: 13YZ061, 13ZZ035), the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (Grant no: SKLEC-KF201407), Key Project of Young Talent Foundation from Zhejiang Gongshang University (Grant no: QZ13-2).
Version: Published
DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.12.009
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/18319
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.12.009
ISSN: 0169-2046
Appears in Collections:Closed Access (Geography)

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