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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/19076

Title: An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network
Authors: Wilby, Robert L.
Noone, Simon
Murphy, Conor
Matthews, Tom K.R.
Harrigan, Shaun
Broderick, Ciaran
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: Wiley (© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society)
Citation: WILBY, R.L. ... et al, 2016. An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network. International Journal of Climatology, 36 (8), pp. 2854-2865.
Abstract: This paper investigates the spatial and temporal properties of persistent meteorological droughts using the homogeneous Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network. Relative to a 1961–1990 baseline period it is shown that the longest observed run of below average precipitation since the 1850s lasted up to 5 years (10 half-year seasons) at sites in southeast and east Ireland, or 3 years across the network as a whole. Dry spell and wet spell length distributions were represented by a first-order Markov model which yields realistic runs of below average rainfall for individual sites and IIP series. This model shows that there is relatively high likelihood (p = 0.125) of a 5-year dry spell at Dublin, and that near unbroken dry runs of 10 years or more are conceivable. We suggest that the IIP network and attendant rainfall deficit modelling provide credible data for stress testing water supply and drought plans under extreme conditions.
Description: This paper is closed access until 19th October 2016.
Version: Accepted for publication
DOI: 10.1002/joc.4523
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/19076
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4523
ISSN: 0899-8418
Appears in Collections:Closed Access (Geography)

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