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Title: | Probabilistic analysis of solar photovoltaic self-consumption using Bayesian Network Models |
Authors: | Leicester, Philip A. Rowley, Paul Goodier, Chris I. |
Keywords: | Solar PV Photovoltaics Self-consumption Simulation Building energy Bayesian Networks |
Issue Date: | 2015 |
Publisher: | Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) |
Citation: | LEICESTER, P.A., ROWLEY, P. and GOODIER, C.I., 2015. Probabilistic analysis of solar photovoltaic self-consumption using Bayesian Network Models. IET Renewable Power Generation, 10 (4), pp. 448-455. |
Abstract: | In order to assess the systemic value and impacts of multiple PV systems in urban areas,
detailed analysis of on-site electricity consumption and of solar PV yield at relatively high temporal
resolution is required, together with an understanding of the impacts of stochastic variations in
consumption and PV generation. In this study, measured and simulated time series data for consumption
and PV generation at 5 and 1 minute resolution for a large number of domestic PV systems are analysed,
and a statistical evaluation of self-consumption carried out. The results show a significant variability of
annual PV self-consumption across the sample population, with typical median annual self-consumption
of 31% and inter-quartile range of 22-44%. 10% of the dwellings exceed a self-consumption of 60% with
10% achieving 14% or less. The results have been used to construct a Bayesian Network model capable of
probabilistically analysing self-consumption given consumption and PV generation. This model provides a
basis for rapid detailed analysis of the techno-economic characteristics and socio-economic impacts of PV
in a range of built environment contexts, from single building to district scales. |
Description: | This item is an Open Access article published by IET and made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) |
Sponsor: | The authors wish to acknowledge the financial support of the Engineering and Physical Sciences
Research Council (EPSRC) of the United Kingdom through EPSRC grants EP/K022229/1 (WISE PV -
Whole System Impacts and Socio-economics of wide scale PV integration) and EP/K02227X/1 (PV2025 -
Potential Costs and Benefits of Photovoltaics for UK-Infrastructure and Society). |
Version: | Published |
DOI: | 10.1049/iet-rpg.2015.0360 |
URI: | https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/19923 |
Publisher Link: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1049/iet-rpg.2015.0360 |
ISSN: | 1752-1424 |
Appears in Collections: | Published Articles (Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering)
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