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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/19924

Title: The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios
Authors: Quiggin, Daniel
Buswell, Richard A.
Keywords: Energy system modelling
Supply-demand grid balancing
Energy scenario
Heat electrification
Climate change
Demand side management
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: © Elsevier
Citation: QUIGGIN, D. and BUSWELL, R.A., 2016. The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios. Energy, 98, pp.253-270.
Abstract: Published UK 2050 energy scenarios specify a range of decarbonised supply side technologies combined with electrification of transportation and heating. These scenarios are designed to meet CO2 reduction targets whilst maintaining reliability of supply. Current models of the UK energy system either make significant assumptions about the role of demand side management or do not carry out the analysis at sufficient resolution and hence determining the impact of heat electrification on the reliability of supply of the scenarios is not possible. This paper presents a new model that estimates national supply and demand, hour-by-hour. Calculations are based on 11 years of weather data which allows a probabilistic assessment of deficit frequency throughout the day. It is found that achieving demand reduction targets are far more important than meeting electrification targets and that significant adoption of CHP is most likely to deliver a viable energy future for the UK.
Description: This paper was accepted for publication in the journal Energy and the definitive published version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.060
Sponsor: This research was made possible by Engineering and Physical Sciences Re- search Council (EPSRC) support for the London-Loughborough Centre for Doctoral Research in Energy Demand (grant EP/H009612/1).
Version: Accepted for publication
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.060
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/19924
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.060
ISSN: 0360-5442
Appears in Collections:Published Articles (Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering)

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