QUIGGIN, D. and BUSWELL, R.A., 2016. The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios. Energy, 98, pp.253-270.
Published UK 2050 energy scenarios specify a range of decarbonised supply
side technologies combined with electrification of transportation and heating.
These scenarios are designed to meet CO2 reduction targets whilst maintaining reliability of supply. Current models of the UK energy system either make
significant assumptions about the role of demand side management or do not
carry out the analysis at sufficient resolution and hence determining the impact of heat electrification on the reliability of supply of the scenarios is not
possible. This paper presents a new model that estimates national supply
and demand, hour-by-hour. Calculations are based on 11 years of weather
data which allows a probabilistic assessment of deficit frequency throughout
the day. It is found that achieving demand reduction targets are far more
important than meeting electrification targets and that significant adoption
of CHP is most likely to deliver a viable energy future for the UK.
This paper was accepted for publication in the journal Energy and the definitive published version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.060
This research was made possible by Engineering and Physical Sciences Re-
search Council (EPSRC) support for the London-Loughborough Centre for
Doctoral Research in Energy Demand (grant EP/H009612/1).