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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/20697

Title: A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium
Authors: Calice, Giovanni
Ioannidis, Christos
Miao, RongHui
Keywords: CDX index
Markov switching
State space
Variance decomposition
Term premium
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: © Elsevier
Citation: CALICE, G., IOANNIDIS, C. and MIAO, R.-H., 2016. A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium. International Review of Financial Analysis, 44, pp. 189-204.
Abstract: Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX index into a permanent and a stationary component. We establish that the inversion of the CDX term premium is induced by sudden changes in the unobserved stationary component, which represents the evolution of the fundamentals underpinning the probability of default in the economy. We find evidence that the monetary policy response from the Fed during the crisis period was effective in reducing the volatility of the term premium. We also show that equity returns make a substantial contribution to the term premium over the entire sample period.
Description: This paper was accepted for publication in the journal International Review of Financial Analysis and the definitive published version is available http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.01.020
Version: Accepted for publication
DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.01.020
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/20697
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.01.020
ISSN: 1057-5219
Appears in Collections:Published Articles (Business)

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