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Title: Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections
Authors: Jackson, Christopher R.
Meister, Rakia
Prudhomme, Christel
Keywords: Groundwater resources
Climate change
Global climate model
Issue Date: 2011
Publisher: Elsevier (© NERC)
Citation: JACKSON, C., MEISTER, R. and PRUDHOMME, C., 2011. Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections. Journal of Hydrology, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.12.028.
Abstract: Projections of climate for the 2080s from an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) run under a medium-high (A2) emissions scenario are used to simulate changes in groundwater resources of a Chalk aquifer in central-southern England. Few studies that have investigated the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources have addressed uncertainty. In this paper the uncertainty associated with use of a suite of GCM outputs in catchment scale impact studies is quantified. A range of predictions is obtained by applying precipitation and temperature change factors, derived from thirteen GCMs, to a distributed recharge model and a groundwater flow model of the Chalk aquifer of the Marlborough and Berkshire Downs and south-west Chilterns in the UK. The ensemble average suggests there will be a 4.9% reduction in annual potential groundwater recharge across the study area, although this is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The spread of results for simulated changes in annual potential groundwater recharge range from a 26% decrease to a 31% increase by the 2080s, with ten predicting a decrease and three an increase. Whilst annual recharge is not found to change significantly, the multi-model results suggest that the seasonal variation in the groundwater resource will be greater, with higher recharge rates during a reduced period of time in winter. The spread of predictions for changes in river baseflow, at the bottom of the largest river sub-catchment, is from -16 to +33% in March and from -68 to -56% in October. The effects of climate change are shown to depend significantly on the type of land-use. It is concluded that further research is required to quantify the effect of different vegetation types on Chalk covered by different thicknesses of soil and their response to a changing climate.
Description: Closed access.
Sponsor: This work was funded by NERC-BGS and NERC-CEH core science budget.
Version: Published
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.12.028
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/22132
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.12.028
ISSN: 0022-1694
Appears in Collections:Closed Access (Geography and Environment)

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