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Title: Nuclear emergency decision support: a behavioural OR perspective
Authors: Argyris, Nikolaos
French, Simon
Keywords: Behavioural OR
Incomplete preference information
Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)
Nuclear emergency preparedness and management
Societal decision-making
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: © Elsevier
Citation: ARGYRIS, N. and FRENCH, S., 2017. Nuclear emergency decision support: a behavioural OR perspective. European Journal of Operational Research, 262(1), pp.180-193.
Abstract: Operational researchers, risk and decision analysts need consider many behavioural issues. Despite many OR applications in nuclear emergency decision support, the literature has not paid sufficient attention to behavioural matters. In working on designing decision support processes for nuclear emergency management, we have encountered many behavioural issues. In this paper we synthesise the findings in the literature with our experience and identify a number of behavioural challenges to nuclear emergency decision support. In addition to challenges in model-building and interaction, we pay attention to a behavioural issue that is often neglected: the analysis itself and the communication of its implications may have behavioural consequences. We introduce proposals to address these challenges. First, we propose the use of models relying on incomplete preference information, outlining a framework and illustrating it with data from a previous decision analysis for the Chernobyl Project. Moreover, we reflect on the responsibility that rests on the analyst in addressing behavioural issues sensitively in order to lessen the effects on public stress. In doing so we make a distinction between System 1 Societal Deliberation and System 2 Societal Deliberation and discuss how this can help structure societal deliberation in the context of nuclear emergencies.
Description: Closed access until 30 March 2019
Sponsor: Many European and UK funded projects and the participants in those have contributed to the thinking in this paper. Currently we are working in the NREFS project, Management of Nuclear Risk Issues: Environmental, Financial and Safety, led by City University, London and carried out in collaboration with Manchester and the Open Universities as part of the UK-India Civil Nuclear Power Collaboration. The authors acknowledge gratefully the support of the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under grant reference number EP/K007580/1. We are grateful to our colleagues on all these projects.
Version: Accepted for publication
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.059
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/24674
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.059
ISSN: 1872-6860
Appears in Collections:Closed Access (Business School)

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