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Title: A briefing on the UK's choice of trade arrangements outside of the EU
Authors: Douch, Mustapha
Edwards, T. Huw
Milne, Alistair
Keywords: Brexit
European Customs Union
Free trade agreements
Non-tariff barriers
Tariff barriers
Single Market
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: ESRC UK in a Changing Europe
Citation: DOUCH, M., EDWARDS, T.H. and MILNE, A., 2017. A briefing on the UK's choice of trade arrangements outside of the EU.
Abstract: This briefing note, prepared by Loughborough University for the ESRC UK in a Changing Europe Initiative, reviews the choices for UK trade arrangements after Brexit. It draws on public domain research by leading UK trade researchers and on the presentations and discussions at a conference, hosted by Loughborough University at our Queen Elizabeth Park, Stratford, London Campus, on Dec 9th, 2016. It reviews the economics arguments for free trade, the institutional arrangements that support free-trade and summarises some key statistics about UK external trade. It also argues that the presentation of Brexit as a binary choice between ‘soft’ (retaining current trade arrangements with the EU) and ‘hard’ (jettisoning all existing trade arrangements in order to start out afresh) is a dangerous oversimplification. This ignores the realities of negotiation with the EU and other trade partners (the choice is not all or nothing, there is opportunity in negotiation to agree anything across a wide range of potential outcomes). The key policy challenge is choosing between a slow and managed Brexit, extended over a period of five to seven years, ensuring low costs of trade between the UK and the EU and avoiding substantial economic costs, or a rapid Brexit which is likely to reduce GDP by between 5 and 8 percent.
Description: This is an updated version of the briefing note from our conference, held at Loughborough University in London, 9th December 2016, on 'International Trade Agreements After Brexit: Establishing The Facts', sponsored by the ESRC's UK in a Changing Europe Initiative
Sponsor: This paper and the associated conference were financed by a grant from the ESRC UK in a Changing Europe commissioning fund.
Version: Published
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/26036
Appears in Collections:Working Papers (Economics)

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