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Title: Uncertainty handling during nuclear accidents.
Authors: French, Simon
Argyris, Nikolaos
Haywood, Stephanie
Hort, Matthew C.
Smith, Jim Q.
Keywords: Deep uncertainty
Displaying spatial uncertainty
Nuclear emergency management
Scenario-focused analysis
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: © the Authors. Published by ISCRAM
Citation: FRENCH, S. ...et al., 2017. Uncertainty handling during nuclear accidents. IN: Comes, T. ...et al. (eds.) Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response And Management: Agility is coming, (ISCRAM 2017), Albi, France, May 21-24th.
Abstract: In the years following Chernobyl, many reports and projects reflected on how to improve emergency management processes in dealing with an accidental offsite release of radiation at a nuclear facility. A common observation was the need to address the inevitable uncertainties. Various suggestions were made and some of these were researched in some depth. The Fukushima Daiichi Disaster has led to further reflections. However, many of the uncertainties inherent in responding to a threatened or actual release remain unaddressed in the analyses and model runs that are conducted to support the emergency managers in their decision making. They are often left to factor in allowances for the uncertainty through informal discussion and unsupported judgement, and the full range of sources of uncertainty may not be addressed. In this paper, we summarise the issues and report on a project which has investigated the handling of uncertainty in the UK’s national crisis cell. We suggest the R&D programmes needed to provide emergency managers with better guidance on uncertainty and how it may affect the consequences of taking different countermeasures.
Description: This is an Open Access Article. It is published by ISCRAM under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 Unported Licence (CC BY-SA). Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
Sponsor: Our recent work has been funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council under grant reference number EP/K007580/1 and by the UK Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling Liaison Committee, as well as by the organisations in which we work.
Version: Published
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/26369
Publisher Link: http://idl.iscram.org/files/sfrench/2017/1442_S.French_etal2017.pdf
ISSN: 2411 -3387
Appears in Collections:Conference Papers and Presentations (Business)

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