BIRD, G. ...et al., 2017. Safe haven or contagion? The disparate effects of Euro-zone crises on non-Euro-zone neighbours. Applied Economics, 49(59), pp. 5895-5904.
While there have been many studies that examine contagion within the Euro-zone, this paper investigates the potential contagion from changes in the Greek sovereign risk premium over 2009-2016, as measured by the yield on 10 year government bonds, to six European countries outside of the Euro-zone all of which operated a managed float against the Euro. We find evidence of contagion to potential Euro-zone ascendants (Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), but ‘flight to safety’ (or safe haven) effects for the United Kingdom, Sweden and Switzerland.
This paper is in closed access until 24th April 2019.