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Title: Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions
Authors: Ballesteros-Perez, Pablo
Skitmore, Martin
Keywords: Modelling
Forecasting
Bidding
Tendering
New bidders
Multinomial
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: © Taylor and Francis
Citation: BALLESTEROS-PEREZ, P. and SKITMORE, M., 2016. Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions. Construction Management and Economics, 34(12), pp. 919-934.
Abstract: © 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. The number of new bidders – bidders from whom there is no previous registered participation – is an important variable in most bid tender forecasting models, since the unknown competitive profile of the former strongly limits the predictive accuracy of the latter. Analogously, when a bidder considers entering a bid or when an auctioneer is handling a procurement auction, assessing the likely proportion of experienced bidders is considered an important aspect, as some strategic decisions or even the awarding criteria might differ. However, estimating the number of bidders in a future auction that have not submitted a single bid yet is difficult, since there is no data at all linking their potential participation, an essential requirement for the implementation of any forecasting or estimation method. A practical approach is derived for determining the expected proportion of new bidders to frequent bidders as a function of the population of potential bidders. A multinomial model useful for selective and Open tendering is proposed and its performance is validated with a dataset of actual construction auctions. Final remarks concern the valuable information provided by the model to an enduring unsolved bidding problem and the prospects for new research continuations.
Description: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Construction Management and Economics on 27 Sep 2016, available online: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2016.1231408
Version: Accepted for publication
DOI: 10.1080/01446193.2016.1231408
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/32748
Publisher Link: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2016.1231408
ISSN: 0144-6193
Appears in Collections:Published Articles (Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering)

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