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Title: Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions
Authors: Ballesteros-Perez, Pablo
Skitmore, Martin
Pellicer, Eugenio
Gutierrez, Jimmy H.
Keywords: Bidding
Bidder identity
Auction
Tendering
Construction
Competitiveness
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. APM and IPMA.
Citation: BALLESTEROS-PEREZ, P. ...et al., 2016. Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions. International Journal of Project Management, 34(2), pp. 158-172.
Abstract: © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.
Description: This paper was accepted for publication in the journal International Journal of Project Management and the definitive published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.11.001
Version: Accepted for publication
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.11.001
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/32755
Publisher Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.11.001
ISSN: 0263-7863
Appears in Collections:Published Articles (Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering)

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