The probability of detecting and tracking RADAR targets in clutter at low grazing angles

Modern military acquisition and tracking RADARs are required to operate against aircraft and missiles specifically designed to have minimal radar cross section (RCS) and which fly at very low level to take maximum advantage of terrain screening. A model for predicting system performance is necessary for a range of terrain types in varying precipitation and seasonal cultural conditions. While the main degradation is from surface clutter and denial of sightline due to terrain and other local obstructions, several other factors such as multipath propagation, deliberate jamming and even operator performance contribute to the total model. The possibility that some radars may track obscured targets, however briefly, by using the diffraction path, is of particular interest. Although this report critically examines each of the contributory factors in order to select optimum values for inclusion in an overall computer prediction model; a new surface clutter model is specifically developed for sloped terrain using actual clutter measurements. The model is validated by comparison with an extensive survey of worldwide clutter results from both published and unpublished sources. Certain constraints have been necessary to restrict the study to a manageable size, while meeting the requirements of the sponsors. Attention is therefore focussed upon performance prediction for typical mobile tracking radar systems designed for operation against small RCS low level targets flying overland.