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Navigating cascades of uncertainty — as easy as ABC? Not quite…
journal contribution
posted on 2018-09-10, 14:29 authored by Katie Smith, Robert L. Wilby, Ciaran Broderick, Christel Prudhomme, Tom Matthews, Shaun Harrigan, Conor MurphyThe uncertainties in scientific studies for climate risk management can be investigated at three levels of complexity: “ABC”. The most sophisticated involves “Analyzing” the full range of uncertainty with large multi-model ensemble experiments. The simplest is about “Bounding” the uncertainty by defining only the upper and lower limits of the likely outcomes. The intermediate approach, “Crystallizing” the uncertainty, distills the full range to improve the computational efficiency of the “Analyze” approach. Modelers typically dictate the study design, with decision-makers then facing difficulties when interpreting the results of ensemble experiments. We assert that to make science more relevant to decision-making, we must begin by considering the applications of scientific outputs in facilitating decision-making pathways, particularly when managing extreme events. This requires working with practitioners from outset, thereby adding “D” for “Decision-centric” to the ABC framework.
Funding
This research was funded through the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Grant Refs: NE/L01016X/1 and NE/L010267/1.
History
School
- Social Sciences
Department
- Geography and Environment
Published in
Journal of Extreme EventsPages
1850007 - 1850007Citation
SMITH, K. ... et al, 2018. Navigating cascades of uncertainty — As easy as ABC? Not quite…. Journal of Extreme Events, Article number 1850007.Publisher
World Scientific Publishing © The Author(s)Version
- VoR (Version of Record)
Publisher statement
This work is made available according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/4.0/Publication date
2018-07-16Notes
This is an Open Access article published by World Scientific Publishing Company. It is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY) License. Further distribution of this work is permitted, provided the original work is properly cited. Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ISSN
2345-7376eISSN
2382-6339Publisher version
Language
- en