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|Title: ||A balance of winners and losers in the Anthropocene|
|Authors: ||Dornelas, Maria|
Gotelli, Nicholas J.
Magurran, Anne E.
|Keywords: ||Population change|
|Issue Date: ||2019|
|Citation: ||DORNELAS, M. ... et al, 2019. A balance of winners and losers in the Anthropocene. Ecology Letters, [in press].|
|Abstract: ||Scientists disagree about the nature of biodiversity change. While there is evidence for widespread declines from population surveys, assemblage surveys reveal a mix of declines and increases. These conflicting conclusions may be caused by the use of different metrics: assemblage metrics may average out drastic changes in individual populations. Alternatively, differences may arise from data sources: populations monitored individually, versus whole assemblage monitoring. To test these hypotheses, we estimated population change metrics using assemblage data. For a set of 23,241 populations, 16,009 species, in 158 assemblages, we detected significantly accelerating extinction and colonisation rates, with both rates being approximately balanced. Most populations (85%) did not show significant trends in abundance, and those that did were balanced between winners (8%) and losers (7%). Thus, population metrics estimated with assemblage data are commensurate with assemblage metrics and reveal sustained and increasing species turnover.|
|Description: ||This paper is closed access until 12 months after the date of publication.|
|Sponsor: ||We are grateful to the European Research Council (AdG BioTIME 250189 and PoC BioCHANGE 72744) for funding. MD is funded by a Leverhulme Fellowship from the Leverhulme Trust and by the John Templeton Foundation grant #60501 'Putting the Extended Evolutionary Synthesis to the Test'.|
|Version: ||Accepted for publication|
|Publisher Link: ||https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14610248|
|Appears in Collections:||Closed Access (Maths)|
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