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Title: Using a scenario-neutral framework to avoid potential maladaptation to future flood risk
Authors: Broderick, Ciaran
Murphy, Conor
Wilby, Robert L.
Matthews, Tom K.R.
Prudhomme, Christel
Adamson, Mark
Issue Date: 2019
Publisher: © the Authors. Published by American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Citation: BRODERICK, C. ... et al., 2019. Using a scenario-neutral framework to avoid potential maladaptation to future flood risk. Water Resources Research, Doi: 10.1029/2018wr023623
Abstract: This study develops a coherent framework to detect those catchment types associated with ahigh risk of maladaptation to futureflood risk. Using the“scenario‐neutral”approach to impactassessment the sensitivity of Irish catchments tofluvialflooding is examined in the context of nationalclimate change allowances. A predefined sensitivity domain is used to quantifyflood responses to +2 °Cmean annual temperature with incremental changes in the seasonality and mean of the annual precipitationcycle. The magnitude of the 20‐yearflood is simulated at each increment using two rainfall‐runoff models(GR4J, NAM), then concatenated as response surfaces for 35 sample catchments. A typology of catchmentsensitivity is developed using clustering and discriminant analysis of physical attributes. The same attributesare used to classify 215 ungauged/data‐sparse catchments. To address possible redundancies, the exposure ofdifferent catchment types to projected climate is established using an objectively selected subset of theCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble. Hydrological model uncertainty is shown tosignificantly influence sensitivity and have a greater effect than ensemble bias. A nationalflood riskallowance of 20%, considering all 215 catchments is shown to afford protection against ~48% to 98% of theuncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 subset (Representative ConcentrationPathway 8.5; 2070–2099), irrespective of hydrological model and catchment type. However, results indicatethat assuming a standard national or regional allowance could lead to local over/under adaptation. Herein,catchments with relatively less storage are sensitive to seasonal amplification in the annual cycle ofprecipitation and warrant special attention.
Description: This is an Open Access Article. It is published by American Geophysical Union under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence. Full details of this licence are available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor: The authors acknowledge theEnvironmental Protection Agency(EPA) of Ireland and the Office ofPublic Works (OPW), which fundedthis work under project 2014‐CCRP‐MS.16.
Version: Published
DOI: 10.1029/2018wr023623
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/36871
Publisher Link: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr023623
ISSN: 0043-1397
Appears in Collections:Published Articles (Geography and Environment)

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