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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/37949

Title: An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard
Authors: Matthews, Tom K.R.
Wilby, Robert L.
Murphy, Conor
Issue Date: 2019
Publisher: Nature Research
Citation: MATTHEWS, T.K.R., WILBY, R.L. and MURPHY, C., 2019. An emerging tropical cyclone-deadly heat compound hazard. Nature Climate Change, [in press].
Abstract: Climate change may bring new hazards through novel combinations of extreme weather (compound events). Here we evaluate the possibility of dangerous heat following major tropical cyclones (TCs) – a combination with serious potential consequences given that mega-blackouts may follow powerful TCs2, and the heavy reliance on air conditioning. We show that “TC-heat” events are already possible along densely populated coastlines globally but, so far, only an estimated 1,000 people have been impacted. However, this number could rise markedly, with over two million at risk under a storyline of the observed TCs recurring in a 2°C warmer world than preindustrial. Using analogues as focussing events we show, for example, that if the catastrophic 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone occurred with 2°C global warming, there would be >70% chance of subsequent dangerous heat. This research highlights a gap in adaptation planning and a need to prepare for an emerging TC-heat compound hazard.
Description: This paper is closed access until six months after the date of publication.
Version: Accepted for publication
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/37949
Publisher Link: https://www.nature.com/nclimate/
ISSN: 1758-678X
Appears in Collections:Closed Access (Geography and Environment)

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