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|Title: ||The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part I. The development of an improved accident frequency model|
|Authors: ||Wong, Derek K.Y.|
Caves, Robert E.
|Keywords: ||Aircraft accidents|
|Issue Date: ||2009|
|Publisher: ||© Elsevier|
|Citation: ||WONG, D.K.Y. ... et al, 2009. The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part I. The development of an improved accident frequency model. Safety Science, 47 (7), pp. 903-912|
|Abstract: ||This two-part paper presents the development of an improved airport risk assessment
methodology aimed at assessing risks related to aircraft accidents at and in the vicinity
of airports and managing Airport Safety Areas (ASAs) as a risk mitigation measure.
The improved methodology is more quantitative, risk-sensitive, flexible and
transparent than standard risk assessment approaches. As such, it contributes to the
implementation of Safety Management Systems at airports, as stipulated by the
International Civil Aviation Organisation.
The first part of the paper presents the methodological advances made in the
development of accident frequency models; namely the building of a single
comprehensive database of all relevant accident types, the collection and use of
normal operations data in quantifying the criticality of a series of risk factors, and
modelling accident frequency using multivariate logistic regression. The resulting
models have better goodness-of-fit, sensitivity and specificity than standard risk
|Description: ||This is a journal article. It was published in the journal, Safety Science [© Elsevier] and the definitive version is available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09257535www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci|
|Version: ||Accepted for publication|
|Appears in Collections:||Published Articles (Civil and Building Engineering)|
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