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Title: The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part I. The development of an improved accident frequency model
Authors: Wong, Derek K.Y.
Pitfield, D.E.
Caves, Robert E.
Appleyard, A.J.
Keywords: Aircraft accidents
Databases
Frequency models
Logistic regression
Risk analysis
Issue Date: 2009
Publisher: © Elsevier
Citation: WONG, D.K.Y. ... et al, 2009. The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part I. The development of an improved accident frequency model. Safety Science, 47 (7), pp. 903-912
Abstract: This two-part paper presents the development of an improved airport risk assessment methodology aimed at assessing risks related to aircraft accidents at and in the vicinity of airports and managing Airport Safety Areas (ASAs) as a risk mitigation measure. The improved methodology is more quantitative, risk-sensitive, flexible and transparent than standard risk assessment approaches. As such, it contributes to the implementation of Safety Management Systems at airports, as stipulated by the International Civil Aviation Organisation. The first part of the paper presents the methodological advances made in the development of accident frequency models; namely the building of a single comprehensive database of all relevant accident types, the collection and use of normal operations data in quantifying the criticality of a series of risk factors, and modelling accident frequency using multivariate logistic regression. The resulting models have better goodness-of-fit, sensitivity and specificity than standard risk assessment methodologies.
Description: This is a journal article. It was published in the journal, Safety Science [© Elsevier] and the definitive version is available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09257535www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci
Version: Accepted for publication
DOI: doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2008.09.010
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/4043
ISSN: 0925-7535
Appears in Collections:Published Articles (Civil and Building Engineering)

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