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Title: | Assessing crowd safety risks: a research into the application of the risk assessment principles to improve crowd safety management and planning in major public venues |
Authors: | Au, Siu Yam Zachary |
Keywords: | Risk evaluation Safety measures |
Issue Date: | 2001 |
Publisher: | © Siu Yam Zachary Au |
Abstract: | This thesis considers the subject of crowd safety and investigates how the application
of risk assessment can provide support for decision making in crowd safety
management and planning. The focus is on major public venues and events where
large crowds arc a normal part of the operation.
Conventional methods of assessment tend to be ad hoc, reactive and rely on individual
experiences. The risk assessment approach, which is comprehensive, systematic and
pro-active, can help to overcome these shortfalls. Risk assessments have already been
successfully applied in many workplaces, ranging from high hazard industrial plants
to the office environment. However, this thesis argues that for it to be of benefit, the
risk assessment must be appropriate to the nature of the operation and the nature and
the extent of the hazards involved. The existing risk assessments are inappropriate to
crowd safety in this respect and a more suitable methodology is required. As there is little
published research knowledge on the subject, two case studies and a survey of public
venue assessors were conducted to collect the necessary information and data. A task
analysis was also performed to examine the tasks involved in assessing crowd safety
risks and identify the factors that enable the assessors to successfully complete their
I
tasks. It has found that crowd safety hazards are very different to those encountered
in other contexts where existing risk assessments are applied. In addition to the kind
of hazards one would normally encounter in a work situation, the presence of large
crowds also presents a set of hazards that are unique to major public venues. Findings
of the venue survey suggest that existing risk assessments are inadequate, particularly
in dealing with this type of crowd and behaviour related hazards, and venue assessors
are experiencing difficulties in identifying such hazards and assessing their risks. By and large, the experiments and questionnaire survey have served to verify, at least
in part, the arguments that risk assessment is better than the conventional assessment
method and that there are more benefits to be gained when the risk assessment is more
appropriate to the nature and the extent of the crowd safety hazards that could arise in
major public venues. Nevertheless, it is important to recognise that the research work
presented in this thesis is merely the first step towards a crowd safety risk assessment
methodology. There are outstanding issues yet to be resolved, not least the issue of
the apparent lack of consistency over time in risk evaluation. This thesis has
identified the research and development work that is required to resolve these issues
and to further the benefits that risk assessment could bring to crowd safety. |
Description: | A Doctoral Thesis. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy of Loughborough University. |
Sponsor: | This thesis considers the subject of crowd safety and investigates how the application
of risk assessment can provide support for decision making in crowd safety
management and planning. The focus is on major public venues and events where
large crowds arc a normal part of the operation.
Conventional methods of assessment tend to be ad hoc, reactive and rely on individual
experiences. The risk assessment approach, which is comprehensive, systematic and
pro-active, can help to overcome these shortfalls. Risk assessments have already been
successfully applied in many workplaces, ranging from high hazard industrial plants
to the office environment. However, this thesis argues that for it to be of benefit, the
risk assessment must be appropriate to the nature of the operation and the nature and
the extent of the hazards involved. The existing risk assessments are inappropriate to
crowd safety in this respect and a more suitable methodology is required. In order to identify the methods and tools that could provide the potential solutions to
the problems of assessing crowd and behaviour related hazards, a review of other risk
assessments was conducted. It has highlighted a number of techniques and tools that
could be applied to assess crowd safety risks. Based on the criteria mentioned above
and the findings of this review, a prototype crowd safety risk assessment methodology
was developed. A series of trials were conducted to evaluate the validity and usability
of the prototype. Revisions were made accordingly to produce the final draft.
Experiments and a questionnaire survey were then carried out on the final draft to test
and verify the methodology. In general, they show that the methodology has led to an
improvement in most aspects of crowd safety risk assessment. In the experiments that
compared the methodology against methods representing the existing risk assessments
and the conventional way of assessing crowd safety, subjects using the methodology
tend to perform better in most areas. More hazards were identified. In the evaluation
of risks, better consistency was achieved between individuals using the methodology.
However, their judgements appeared to be less consistent over time. The use of a
larger rating scheme with more choices available in the methodology could have an
impact on consistency in risk evaluation. Another key factor could be that the
subjects who took part in the experiments were all novice assessors. Possible learning
effect may have occurred in between experiments, which could have resulted in a
change of mind over time. If this is the case, this result could be an indication that the
methodology is more sensitive to changes in risks or risk perception. It will be
interesting to find out if experienced assessors can achieve better consistency. By and large, the experiments and questionnaire survey have served to verify, at least
in part, the arguments that risk assessment is better than the conventional assessment
method and that there are more benefits to be gained when the risk assessment is more
appropriate to the nature and the extent of the crowd safety hazards that could arise in
major public venues. Nevertheless, it is important to recognise that the research work
presented in this thesis is merely the first step towards a crowd safety risk assessment
methodology. There are outstanding issues yet to be resolved, not least the issue of
the apparent lack of consistency over time in risk evaluation. This thesis has
identified the research and development work that is required to resolve these issues
and to further the benefits that risk assessment could bring to crowd safety. |
URI: | https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/6834 |
Appears in Collections: | PhD Theses (Design School)
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