The financial system and economic growth in the United Kingdom: a disaggregated time series approach

This thesis examines the relationship between the development of the financial system and economic growth in the United Kingdom, using a time series econometric methodology. It extends the existing literature in three ways. First, it applies a disaggregated approach, testing the relationship not only at the aggregate level, but also for the manufacturing and service sectors of the UK. This allows the modeling to be driven by the financial characteristics of each sector, thereby providing a firmer foundation for policy recommendations. Second, `fmance-augmented' production functions are estimated throughout, thus yielding coefficients that are theoretically consistent and interpretable. The empirical results suggest that the aggregate economy faces decreasing returns to scale, the manufacturing sector exhibits increasing returns to scale while the service sector appears to display either constant or decreasing returns. Third, both these innovations mean that the study is also able to make a contribution to the on-going sectoral productivity and policy debates in the UK, emphasising the role of finance in this process. The study finds evidence that the evolution of the finance-output relationship in the UK is sector-specific, in that the development of the stock market is positively associated with long-run output, both at the aggregate level and for the manufacturing sector, whereas banking sector development is found to be important for service sector output.