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|Title: ||A study of the determinants of migration: the case of Greek migration to West Germany 1960-1982|
|Authors: ||Xideas, Evagelos|
|Issue Date: ||1986|
|Publisher: ||© E. Xideas|
|Abstract: ||In the period following the end of World War II, Western
European countries have experienced rapid economic growth. In the second half of the fifties, labour shortages emerged,
obliging developed countries to have recourse to foreign labour
in order to maintain high growth rates. During the sixties,
bilateral agreements between European industralised countries
(West Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium ...
) and less developed
Mediterranean countries (Spain, Portugal, Greece, Yugoslavia,
) produced large-scale migration in Western Europe.
The main bulk of Greek emigration has been directed towards West
Germany, reaching a peak in 1971, while the reverse flow of
returning migrants exceeded emigration from 1974 up to 1981.
Data concerning these two flows, from 1960 to 1982, give us the
opportunity to test the determinants of both outward and return
migration using models based on the Neo-classical, the Keynesian
and the Human Capital theories. Under the Neo-classical assumptions
about labour and product markets, migration of labour is explained
by income differentials prevailing between two regions. The
Keynesian model adds unemployment as a cause of migration.
Because of the static framework concerning the above models, expectations
about future income resulting from migration have been introduced
to make the model dynamic. Under the Human Capital theory,
migration will occur if the present value of the expected benefits
exceeds the present value of the expected costs resulting from
migration. Empirical tests of the above model's using OLS or other
methods attempting to overcome econometric problems, are presented.
Logarithmic forms of emigration equations present the best results.
The logarithmic form implicitly assumes that emigration is of a
Cobb-Douglas type function. Because of the weaknesses concerning
Cobb-Douglas type functions, a translog type emigration function is
determined and tests are applied in order to find the best estimation
provided by the two functions. Next, we consider migration decisionmaking
at the level of an individual who seeks to maximise his welfare
in conditions of uncertainty. Introducing utility functions and
risk coefficients, the maximisation of welfare yields a stochastic migration function. Furthermore, we examine the migration
decision in a binary choice model context. The potential migrant
has to decide whether to migrate or not, and an application of the
binary logit probability model enables us to estimate the
probability that an individual drawn at random from the population
will choose to migrate.
Finally, we estimate emigration and return migration functions
together with employment (or unemployment) and wages functions in a
simultaneous equations system in order to avoid simultaneous bias
resulting from interdependence between migration and other variables
used as explanatory in the previous models.|
|Description: ||A Doctoral Thesis. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy of Loughborough University.|
|Appears in Collections:||PhD Theses (Economics)|
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