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Title: A framework for considering uncertainty in quantitative life cycle cost estimation
Authors: Goh, Yee M.
Newnes, Linda B.
McMahon, Chris
Mileham, Antony R.
Paredis, Christiaan J.J.
Issue Date: 2009
Publisher: © ASME
Citation: Goh, Y.M., Newnes, L., McMahon, C. ... et al., 2009. A framework for considering uncertainty in quantitative life cycle cost estimation. In: Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference 2009, DETC2009. New York: ASME, pp. 3-13.
Abstract: Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is important information that is useful for decision making affecting complex engineering systems with extended life. Uncertainty in the estimation of LCC, especially in the early concept and definition stage, has great influence on the robustness of such decisions. Conventionally, Verification and Validation (V&V) of cost estimates is not performed, either due to economic or practical constraints. This paper presents a framework for considering uncertainties in quantitative life cycle cost estimation, focusing on the aspects that are important for understanding the discrepancies between the estimated and actual costs. Built on experience in verification and validation in engineering, the framework will be used to guide further research in this topic, where emphasis on suitable theories and models of different types of uncertainties in the estimation as well as strategies to deal with them effectively to improve decision making involving LCC will be discussed.
Description: This item is Closed Access. It was presented at a the ASME 2009 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference (IDETC/CIE2009), 30 August - 2 September 2009. San Diego, CA, United States. It was published in Volume 8: 14th Design for Manufacturing and the Life Cycle Conference; 6th Symposium on International Design and Design Education; 21st International Conference on Design Theory and Methodology, Parts A and B [© ASME] and is available from the ASME Digital Library at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/DETC2009-86385
Version: Published
DOI: 10.1115/DETC2009-86385
URI: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/8895
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/DETC2009-86385
ISBN: 9780791849057
Appears in Collections:Closed Access (Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering)

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