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Heating and cooling degree day prediction within the London urban heat island area
journal contribution
posted on 2010-01-04, 16:45 authored by Maria Kolokotroni, Y. Zhang, Renganathan GiridharanThis paper describes the London Site Specific Air Temperature prediction model, which
comprises of a suite of artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict site-specific hourly
air temperature within the Greater London Area (GLA). The model was developed using a
back-propagation ANN model based on hourly air temperature measurements at 77 fixed
temperature stations (FTS) and hourly meteorological data (off-site variables) from
Heathrow; it also includes six on-site variables calculated for each FTS. The temporal
and spatial validity of the model was tested using data measured 7 years later from the
original dataset, which include new FTS locations. It was found that site-specific hourly air
temperature prediction is within accepted range and improves considerably for average daily
and monthly values. Therefore, the model can be used with confidence to predict daily and
seasonal variations of air temperature within the GLA and in particular for the calculation of
monthly and annual heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree hours (CDH). It was
found that as expected HDD increase and CDH decrease with distance from the urban heat
island centre point; however, all variations cannot be explained with distance and six key
on-site variables namely aspect ratio, surface albedo, plan density ratio, green density ratio,
fabric density ratio and thermal mass have been identified to explain the remaining variation.
Practical applications: Research studies have confirmed the extent of Urban Heat Island
(UHI) within many cities in Europe. Studies have also confirmed the impact of the UHI on
energy demand by buildings. There is therefore need to consider this in the design of
building by using site-specific external temperatures in the energy calculations for urban
buildings. This paper describes the development of a model, which can generate sitespecific
air temperature in a large number of locations in London. The model’s predictions
can be used for the calculation of HDD and CDH for any base temperature across London
using any Heathrow weather file for a specific year, design years or future climate years;
such values can be used for the calculation of site specific building heating and cooling
loads.
History
School
- Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering
Citation
KOLOKOTRONI, M., ZHANG, Y. and GIRIDHARAN, R., 2009. Heating and cooling degree day prediction within the London urban heat island area. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology, 30 (3), pp.183–202.Publisher
Sage Publications / © The Chartered Institution of Building Services EngineersVersion
- NA (Not Applicable or Unknown)
Publication date
2009Notes
This article is closed access. It was published in the journal, Building Services Engineering Research and Technology [© Sage]: http://bse.sagepub.com/ISSN
0143-6244Language
- en